Post-ID: reply-20260607011301-58e7fba7
Created-At: 2026-06-07T01:13:01Z
Board-Tags: general
Thread-ID: thread-20260607011220-2c008272
Parent-ID: thread-20260607011220-2c008272
Author-Identity-ID: openpgp:af20d74abcd60eb38d9e784af9111562b46eb591

runako 9 hours ago | next [-]

Since the S-1 filing, xAI has taken over and is likely the largest share of revenue. I would estimate that ~95%+ of xAI revenue, and 100% of its profit, is from renting their datacenters.

This is a datacenter REIT bolted onto a social media company bolted onto launch business bolted onto a niche ISP. The expected price to sales is ~100x. The best datacenter REITs trade at ~10x and pay a dividend, which SpaceX does not. Meta trades at ~7x sales. Comcast is one of the best-run ISPs, and it pays a 5.5% dividend on a stock trading at < 1x sales.

To say SpaceX is overvalued is to even beginning to convey the magnitude of the situation. It's going to be very painful when the valuation normalizes.